Over the years since I started this blog, I’ve tracked a lot of picks. I track straight up picks, picks against the spread, and most recently started grading money line picks since the last couple of years the “money line sprinkle” is all the craze. Most years I post a writeup up preseason predictions but don’t track it in any meaningful way. It is mostly for fun so we can go back after the season and see how absurd some people’s predictions were.
As I patiently await the season preview for 2021, I looked over the odds. Alabama’s odds have already shortened from +325 to +300. Two other top-five teams including Georgia and Oklahoma, saw their odds fade slightly. Clemson and Ohio State are steady as a rock at the moment. I’m not a futures bettor so I couldn’t tell you who I like. But I compiled a list of the College Gameday analysts’ preseason predictions to do a little analysis.
I know TV analysts are in the business of generating buzz. Let’s face it: it is boring if they all choose Alabama or Clemson to win in the preseason. However, sometimes they can get a little too cute with their preseason picks, so I wondered what it would look like if we took the College Gameday crew’s preseason predictions and used them as futures bets. Would anybody show a profit?
For our experiment, we took the preseason playoff predictions from Lee Corso, Kirk Herbstreit and Desmond Howard for examination. First, each preseason championship prediction for the playoff era is treated as a $100 futures bet and we calculate losses and profits. Second, we also took all four playoff picks and treated them each as a $100 futures bet since most people bet more than one team in the futures. Let’s see how things compare. Historical futures odds are courtesy of sportsoddshistory.com.
|2020||Championship Pick||Runner Up||Semifinal||Semifinal|
|Lee Corso||Alabama+300||Clemson+200||Oklahoma+1200||Notre Dame+1600|
|Lee Corso||Alabama+250||Utah+4000||Clemson+250||Ohio State+1600|
|Kirk Herbstreit||Alabama+250||Clemson+250||Texas+2500||Ohio State+1600|
|Kirk Herbstreit||Alabama+175||Clemson+400||Washington+1500||Penn State+2500|
|Desmond Howard||Michigan+1000||Alabama+175||West Virginia+6000||Clemson+400|
|Lee Corso||Southern Cal+700||Alabama+250||Ohio State+300||Florida State+800|
|Kirk Herbstreit||Ohio State+300||Alabama+250||Southern Cal+700||Florida State+800|
|Desmond Howard||Stanford+5000||Alabama+250||Wisconsin+2000||Miami (FL)+6000|
|Lee Corso||LSU+800||Michigan+800||Florida State+700||Oklahoma+1200|
|Kirk Herbstreit||Clemson+700||Alabama+600||Ohio State+800||TCU+3000|
|Lee Corso||LSU+2000||Ohio State+250||Oregon+2000||Baylor+800|
|Kirk Herbstreit||Ohio State+250||LSU+2000||Oklahoma+3000||Arizona State+20000|
|Desmond Howard||Stanford+3000||TCU+600||Michigan State+2000||Texas A&M+10000|
|Lee Corso||UCLA+1000||Florida State+300||Michigan State+2500||Alabama+450|
|Kirk Herbstreit||Florida State+300||Alabama+450||Michigan State+2500||UCLA+1000|
|Desmond Howard||UCLA+1000||Georgia+1800||Florida State+300||Wisconsin+3000|
As we look at each analysts’ year by year championship picks, we see some people going out on a limb with their picks on occasion. Does this show a better profit than sticking to chalk? The “cutest” championship predictions in the playoff era are:
Lee Corso picking Wisconsin+2000 and Desmond Howard picking Michigan+1000 in 2018
Desmond Howard picking Stanford+5000 in 2017
Desmond Howard picking Stanford+3000 in 2015
Lee Corso and Desmond Howard both picking UCLA+1000 in 2014
Kirk pretty much picks chalk every year. Clemson, Alabama, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Ohio State, Florida State. That’s the preseason favorite 5 out 7 years. He went out on a limb the other two years and picked the 2nd favorite.
If you bet $100 on the preseason odds-on favorite every year at close, you’d be down $50 over 7 seasons.
2020: 200 (Clemson+200)
2019: -100 (take your pick, Bama or Clemson+250)
2018: -100 (Alabama+175)
2017: 250 (Alabama+250)
2016: -100 (Alabama+600)
2015: -100 (Ohio State+250)
2014: -100 (Florida State+300)
If you bet $100 on each Gameday analyst’s preseason pick the results would be the following:
|Lee Corso||Kirk Herbstreit||Desmond Howard|
If we took the second approach and used each analysts’ final four predictions as a $100 futures bet, the results are below:
|Lee Corso||Kirk Herbstreit||Desmond Howard|
So what does this all mean? Betting straight favorites results in a small loss. It appears betting the Gameday analysts’ final four is disastrous. Don’t do it. They took a handful of crazy long shots (Cincinnati+100000? Texas A&M+10000?) which seem much more likely to generate buzz than value. Desmond Howard profited the most betting ONLY championship picks at $500 while Kirk Herbstreit profited $100. Lee Corso lost $300 betting his pick each season. The profit for Desmond and Kirk comes entirely from Clemson+700 in 2016. In hindsight, it seems obvious that picking anyone outside of the playoff blue bloods is suicidal. LSU+2500 in 2019 is the lone exception, and it is hard to call them a true dark horse. I guess all I could say is, pay attention to Desmond Howard if he sticks to chalk in his 2021 prediction. Kirk Herbstreit will definitely stick to chalk, but that won’t profit you much. Don’t go out on a limb and bet a bunch on Texas, or throw your money away on Michigan, or pick Arizona State as a dark horse. And as much as I hate to say it, don’t bet on Lee Corso’s preseason prediction.